High turnout makes Labour's defeat even worse

A high turnout makes Labour's defeat a depressingly low slump for Brown

THE Labour defeat in Dunfermline & West Fife is even worse than it first appears; and not just because the loss had not been widely predicted. So Tony Blair, and particularly Gordon Brown, should be worried. Unlike most by-elections, it was not just a matter of fed-up voters staying at home.
Turnout, at 49 per cent, was higher than in any byelection in the last Parliament and higher than in all but two by-elections since 1997.

Admittedly, the switch of votes from Labour to the Liberal Democrats of 16.2 per cent was much less than in the last four by-elections of the 2001-05 Parliament, and the huge swings of 26 and 29 per cent in 2004. But these were on much lower turnouts. So on Thursday, in the absence of the usual squeeze on the third party, there was a sizeable shift directly from Labour to the Liberal Democrats, rather than just abstentions.

If the by-election had been in northeast England, rather than Fife, the headlines would have been all about Mr Blair in trouble with speculation about how long he could stay in 10 Downing Street. But, for the first time, Mr Brown is also deeply involved. He lives in the constituency and is a neighbouring MP. So it is a problem for them both. Local issues, such as tolls on the Forth Road Bridge, job losses and hospital cutbacks seem to have played a part, in a reversal of the familiar pattern when local politicians blame loses on national trends.

The by-election defeat is very worrying for Labour’s prospects in the local elections in two months. The party will be seeking to defend its already reduced council base in the London boroughs, the big industrial cities of the Midlands and the North, and the many medium-sized towns.

Mr Blair and Mr Brown now face a joint challenge in quelling unrest among Labour MPs and party activists before important Commons votes over the schools Bill, and next week on ID cards, and terrorism, as Mr Blair recognised yesterday in his rather defensive Blackpool speech.

For the Liberal Democrats, victory is obviously a welcome boost after the traumas of the past two months. Support for the party is not in freefall: far from it. Indeed, recent opinion polls, such as the Populus survey in The Times, put the party’s rating at 18 per cent, five points less than last May, but well above the low of 13 per cent in a poll last month.

This again suggests that voters are less fevered and more detached than some of the media in distinguishing between politicians’ personal lives and problems and their attitudes to a party.

The direct impact on the Lib Dem leadership contest may be limited. If there is any beneficiary, it may be Sir Menzies Campbell, since Dunfermline is in his home area of Fife and he is the acting leader of the party. But his race with Chris Huhne remains very close.

The Conservatives can dismiss their fourth place and slight loss of support in a seat where they never had a chance. But David Cameron’s tactic of portraying himself as a liberal Conservative badly backfired. And, before too long, probably in May, he has to be able to point to real gains.

Thursday’s result is, of course, no guide to what will happen in the 2009 or 2010 general election. By-elections are usually talking points rather than turning points. Dunfermline has changed the political conversation.

The Times